TL;DR
Markets will test the strength of U.S. shoppers while trading pauses for Thursday’s holiday. Volatility is still high, PMIs show expansion with hotter prices, and labor data are uneven. Watch Tuesday’s delayed retail sales and real‑time Black Friday signals.
Thanksgiving week 2025 market outlook: Consumer spending takes center stage
Thanksgiving week 2025 market outlook hinges on consumer demand as Black Friday and Cyber Monday set the tone. Markets pause Thursday for the holiday, sharpening focus on holiday tills. Reuters flags Black Friday 2025 consumer spending as this week’s key swing factor, with September retail sales delayed to Tuesday.
By the numbers:
- The S&P 500 is down more than 4% so far in November.
- A vix spike november 2025 left the VIX at its highest close since April.
- Bitcoin slipped toward $80,000, with about $1.2 trillion erased from crypto in six weeks.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 220,000; continuing claims rose to 1.974 million.
- us flash pmi november 2025: manufacturing 51.9, services 55.0, composite 54.8.
Timeline: Thanksgiving holiday and delayed data releases
Zoom in: key dates that shape positioning.
- Tuesday: September retail sales delayed report arrives, feeding views on consumer strength.
- Thursday: U.S. markets close for Thanksgiving.
- Friday: Black Friday kicks off the season; Monday brings Cyber Monday.
- Dec. 16: October and November payrolls publish together; October’s unemployment rate is not available.
Volatility watch: Sharp swings persist as indexes finish higher
Stocks ended higher Friday after a turbulent stretch (S&P 500 +1.0%, Dow +1.1%, Nasdaq +0.9%). However, the biggest bout of volatility in months kept nerves tight. The vix spike november 2025 underscores fragile risk appetite heading into holiday trading.
For the Thanksgiving week 2025 market outlook, elevated hedging costs and uneven leadership argue for selective risk.
PMIs mixed as prices re‑accelerate
The us flash pmi november 2025 showed slower manufacturing momentum (51.9) but firmer services (55.0). The composite rose to 54.8, pointing to continued growth. Meanwhile, price pressures intensified.
Input costs rose at one of the fastest rates in three years and selling‑price inflation re‑accelerated, according to S&P Global. The upshot: expansion persists, but rising costs may test margins into year‑end.
Labor snapshot: Claims diverge as reporting resumes
Initial claims declined to 220,000, yet continuing claims climbed to 1.974 million. That mix suggests a still‑resilient but cooling labor backdrop.
Reporting resumed after a 43‑day shutdown. October payrolls will be released with November on Dec. 16, and October’s unemployment rate is not available. Schedules remain adjusted into December.
Crypto under pressure amid risk‑off and deleveraging
Crypto mirrored broader risk aversion. Bitcoin fell toward $80,000 as roughly $1.2 trillion in market value vanished over six weeks. Liquidity thinned as volatility rose.
Binance’s CEO linked the slide to bitcoin risk-off deleveraging across asset classes. Even so, he noted Bitcoin remains well above 2024 levels. If bitcoin risk-off deleveraging persists, cross‑asset risk appetite could stay muted.
Black Friday 2025 market outlook: Retail and data to watch
Investors will parse black friday 2025 consumer spending indicators, from foot traffic to card‑spending trackers. Together with September retail sales delayed to Tuesday, these inputs could guide near‑term moves and earnings expectations.
The Thanksgiving week 2025 market outlook ultimately comes down to shoppers’ willingness to spend despite higher prices and lingering volatility.
What’s next for the Thanksgiving week 2025 market outlook
- Tuesday’s September retail sales delayed release sets the early tone.
- High‑frequency reads on black friday 2025 consumer spending will update demand in real time.
- Whether the vix spike november 2025 fades or persists.
- Pricing signals from the us flash pmi november 2025 as firms pass through costs.
- Crypto positioning if bitcoin risk-off deleveraging continues.
Sources
- Reuters, Wall St Week Ahead Black Friday puts focus on consumer spending for rocky markets
- Reuters, US manufacturing slows in November as high prices curb demand
- Reuters, US weekly jobless claims fall; continuing claims increase
- Reuters, Bubble Trouble: AI rally shows cracks as investors question risks
- Reuters, Bitcoin on thin ice after sinking in flight from risk
- Reuters, Binance CEO Teng says bitcoin volatility in line with most asset classes
- AP News, More swings hit Wall Street, but this time stocks finish higher
- S&P Global Market Intelligence, Flash PMI signals faster economic growth in November, but price pressures also intensify
- Reuters, Take Five: From Budget blues to Black Friday
