BAF NEWS

2025 Black Friday shopping forecast: resilient demand, $1T season in sight

The 2025 Black Friday shopping forecast points to steady-to-strong demand as retailers chase the first $1 trillion holiday season. According to the nrf holiday sales forecast 2025, November–December sales are projected to rise 3.7%–4.2% year over year. Here’s the twist: shoppers look willing, but value signals will still decide winners.

NRF’s call puts retailers on offense, yet pricing power remains fragile. Therefore, expect sharper, earlier promotions to pull demand forward. Still, clear experiences and fast fulfillment could matter as much as price.

Record Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday shoppers expected

NRF projects a record 186.9 million people shopping over the five-day stretch, with Black Friday still the main event. That would mark a true thanksgiving weekend shoppers record and a powerful kickoff for the cyber monday 2025 outlook. You might be surprised that early November already saw most shoppers start.

By early November, 58% had started holiday shopping and about a quarter of purchases were already done. Additionally, TransUnion notes 41% plan to shop online and 33% in person during the Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday window. Consequently, stores and sites must be ready for mixed traffic and split inventory.

Timeline: Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday 2025 and early indicators

Focus tightens now through Cyber Monday. With some government data delayed by a shutdown, early reads from retailers and third‑party trackers take center stage. As a result, the cyber monday 2025 outlook will double as a real‑time stress test.

What no one is mentioning: how much site performance and delivery promises shape conversion when discounts look similar. Watch hourly traffic, cart conversion, and shipping thresholds from Thursday night through Sunday. Then, Cyber Monday typically delivers the largest single‑day online push.

Surveys: Spending plans hold up

TransUnion’s latest pulse shows resilience. About 57% expect to spend the same or more than last year, and 31% plan to spend over $500, per the transunion holiday spending survey 2025. Moreover, inflation remains the top worry, but intent is intact.

The transunion holiday spending survey 2025 also finds more shoppers targeting specific deals, not broad splurges. Therefore, expect heavier comparison shopping and tighter baskets, not a collapse. Additionally, 58% expect to spend over $250, underscoring broad engagement across budgets.

Payment behavior: More shoppers plan to use credit cards

Credit is set to carry more of the load. Forty‑two percent of holiday shoppers now prefer credit cards, up from 38% last year, underscoring rising credit card usage holiday 2025. However, elevated APRs mean budgets will still bite.

Retailers should optimize checkout routing, rewards, and BNPL placement to lift approval and conversion. Because credit card usage holiday 2025 may swell at peak hours, payment resilience and fraud controls will matter. Consequently, finetuned authorization and fallback rails could protect sales.

Risks: Inflation and tariffs could weigh on demand

Here’s the twist: prices remain sticky. According to available reports, consumer sentiment has slumped while inflation stays firm, with import tariffs contributing to higher prices. Consequently, heavy discounting could defend traffic but compress margins.

Additionally, tighter wallets could spark trade‑downs even as intent holds. If promotions disappoint, some shoppers may defer buys. Still, rising credit use can bridge gaps in the near term, though repayment risks linger for 2026.

Why investors care about the 2025 Black Friday shopping forecast

This five‑day read hits when markets crave clarity. Consumer spending drives more than two‑thirds of U.S. GDP, and a shutdown has delayed key releases. Therefore, investors will parse web traffic, receipt data, and retailer commentary for momentum signals.

Retailers guiding to the nrf holiday sales forecast 2025 will face a credibility check. Moreover, the 2025 Black Friday shopping forecast will shape expectations for December cadence, inventory risk, and Q4 margins. In turn, that feeds into equity, credit, and FX positioning.

What’s Next: Key updates to watch after Cyber Monday

Immediately after Monday, look for early retailer statements and independent tracker data. Focus on sell‑through, return rates, and whether the thanksgiving weekend shoppers record translated into dollars. Also watch average order values as the cyber monday 2025 outlook hardens.

Then, expect delayed government retail data to confirm or challenge the early story. If the 2025 Black Friday shopping forecast proves right, we’ll see stable traffic with selective deal‑driven lifts. If not, watch for deeper markdowns into December and a scramble to protect margins.