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December 2025 Fed rate cut odds ticked higher after New York Fed President John Williams said rates could be reduced “in the near term.” With Thanksgiving week market liquidity thin, traders are focused on yields, data, and the December Fed meeting 2025.

TL;DR

Markets lifted December 2025 Fed rate cut odds to nearly 60% after a John Williams near-term cut hint, according to Reuters. us treasury yields opened the holiday-shortened week steady as liquidity thins. However, divided Fed messaging keeps the December Fed meeting 2025 in play.

December 2025 Fed rate cut odds rise

December 2025 Fed rate cut odds increased after John Williams said the Fed can cut “in the near term.” Futures pricing moved toward nearly 60% for a December move, per Reuters. The john williams near-term cut remark helped re-center expectations.

Traders framed the shift as meaningful but tentative. However, December 2025 Fed rate cut odds remain sensitive to fresh data and any hawkish pushback. As a result, pricing could swing on small surprises.

Still, Williams’ comment, that the Fed “can still cut rates in the near term,” reset the tone late last week. Yet policy hawks remain vocal, leaving the outlook finely balanced.

Treasury yields steady into Thanksgiving week

U.S. Treasury yields were largely steady to start the week after sizable declines the previous week, Reuters reported. With Thanksgiving week market liquidity thinning, early moves were contained. Consequently, us treasury yields showed little change in initial trading.

However, subdued flows can amplify any shock. Therefore, a data surprise could break the calm. Even so, us treasury yields often stay range-bound when desks are lightly staffed.

Moreover, currency markets flagged thin conditions as well, underscoring caution across assets. Nevertheless, rates desks expect contained price discovery until key U.S. releases arrive.

Debate that could sway December 2025 Fed rate cut odds

Fed officials offered mixed guidance that could sway December 2025 Fed rate cut odds. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan urged “holding rates steady for a time,” arguing for patience while policy works through.

By contrast, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she is “hesitant” about another cut. Consequently, the path into the December Fed meeting 2025 looks contested, and conviction remains fragile.

Miran signals flexibility on a smaller cut

Fed Governor Stephen Miran signaled flexibility on size. He said he would back a 25-basis-point cut if he were the “marginal vote.” Previously, he dissented in favor of larger 50-bp cuts, highlighting narrow margins around any move.

Timeline: From Nov. 21 remarks to Thanksgiving week

• Nov. 21: Stephen Miran says he would support a 25-bp cut if decisive; the John Williams near-term cut line lands the same day.
• Nov. 21: Williams’ comments help lift December 2025 Fed rate cut odds toward nearly 60%, and yields ease.
• Nov. 21: Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan urges holding rates steady “for a time.”
• Nov. 22: Boston Fed’s Susan Collins says she is hesitant about another cut.
• Nov. 24: Yields open steady as Thanksgiving week market liquidity thins.

What’s Next: December 2025 Fed rate cut odds and holiday data

Looking ahead, Thanksgiving week market liquidity and incoming releases will steer pricing. Reuters flagged retail sales, producer prices, and jobless claims on deck this week. Thus, us treasury yields may stay range-bound unless data meaningfully surprise.

Ultimately, December 2025 Fed rate cut odds will converge as officials guide into the December Fed meeting 2025. Yet another hawkish speech could trim probabilities quickly. Conversely, a soft data pulse could cement a move. Therefore, any follow-up to the John Williams near-term cut signal will matter.