BAF NEWS

November 26 2025 metals market update: Gold hovered near a two‑week high as traders priced a likely December U.S. rate cut, and UK‑listed miners followed copper higher. Spot gold was modestly up into mid‑afternoon London time, while precious‑metals names led UK sector gains. In short, gold rises on fed rate cut bets and broader risk tone improved.

By the numbers:

• 83%: Probability of a December U.S. rate cut, per CME FedWatch, helping explain why gold rises on fed rate cut bets. Reuters pegged spot gold near $4,144/oz at 14:25 GMT.
• 3.8%: FTSE precious‑metals subindex gain, industrial miners added about 1% as copper advanced.
• $4,450/oz: Deutsche Bank 2026 gold forecast, the bank kept 2027 at $5,150/oz after October’s record.
• 230k/407k tons: UBS’s projected copper market deficits for 2025/2026 as mine disruptions persist.
• 229,056: COMEX copper open interest, up 1,979 contracts on Nov. 26, estimated volume was 110,758.
• 404,000+ tons: Combined LME lead stocks, with a 95‑day load‑out queue at Singapore warehouses.

The upshot: Rate expectations continue to anchor bullion, while copper’s supply story is tightening. However, lead’s surplus theme contrasts with copper’s deficits, reinforcing a bifurcated base‑metals tape.

Deutsche Bank lifts 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450

Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 target to $4,450/oz, citing persistent central‑bank demand and ETF absorption. The Deutsche Bank 2026 gold forecast comes with a steady 2027 view at $5,150/oz, and follows a near 59% year‑to‑date rally and an October record of $4,381.21/oz, according to available reports.

“Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450 an ounce,” the bank noted. The deutsche bank 2026 gold forecast underscores a supportive macro mix if policy eases and reserve managers keep buying. Nevertheless, positioning and seasonality could still inject volatility around the Fed decision window.

Timeline: November 26 2025 metals market highlights

Zoom in:

• Nov 24: UBS lifts targets and deepens deficits in copper, prices firm into mid‑week.
• Nov 26 (AM): UK equities rise, precious‑metals miners lead as gold nears a two‑week high.
• Nov 26 (PM): Gold rises on fed rate cut bets as December probabilities climb.
• Nov 26: Trafigura nickel fraud case continues in London, with remote testimony and sharp denials.
• Nov 26: South Korea’s government receives a petrochem restructuring plan from HD Hyundai and Lotte.
• Nov 26: India’s steel expansion meets emission and CBAM headwinds, chemicals majors move to phase out PFAS.

Copper outlook in the November 26 2025 metals market

UBS raised copper targets for 2026 to $11,500 (Mar), $12,000 (Jun), $12,500 (Sep) and $13,000 (Dec), citing mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile and unrest in Peru. The bank now sees a 230,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and a 407,000‑ton deficit in 2026, with demand growth near 2.8% per year. The ubs copper price outlook 2026 therefore leans bullish into mid‑cycle electrification demand.

Additionally, COMEX open interest rose to 229,056, while UK industrial miners edged higher as copper strengthened. The ubs copper price outlook 2026 meets improving futures participation, yet execution still hinges on supply normalising and project timelines holding.

Lead market: LME queues and record stocks signal surplus

Long load‑out queues in Singapore and record combined inventories point to warehousing churn masking a persistent surplus in lead. “The queue to load lead out of LME warehouses in Singapore stretched to 95 days,” while combined on‑ and off‑warrant stocks topped 404,000 tons. Consequently, lme lead stocks queues telegraph ample supply, and lme lead stocks queues also help explain the metal’s tight trading range.

Nickel spotlight: Trafigura’s $600 million fraud case continues in London

Trafigura alleges nickel was substituted with steel or scrap in cargoes tied to businessman Prateek Gupta. Gupta denied wrongdoing in remote testimony, and arguments over who designed the scheme intensified. As the trafigura nickel fraud case proceeds, the company contests the claims, the trafigura nickel fraud case remains a key legal overhang for parts of the nickel trade.

South Korea petrochemicals: Lotte’s Daesan to merge with HD Hyundai Chemical

HD Hyundai and Lotte Chemical submitted a restructuring plan to the industry ministry, aligned with efforts to cut overcapacity. “Under the plan, Lotte will spin off its business in Daesan city, South Korea, and merge it with HD Hyundai Chemical.” Authorities previously “pushed firms to cut as much as 25% of the country’s annual capacity,” with up to 3.7 Mt/yr of naphtha‑cracking capacity potentially reduced. Incentives are under review.

What’s next

What’s next: The December Fed decision is the main catalyst for gold in this November 26 2025 metals market update. Watch whether the deutsche bank 2026 gold forecast intersects with actual policy outcomes. For copper, track mine‑supply headlines against the ubs copper price outlook 2026 and COMEX positioning. In Asia, monitor incentives tied to South Korea’s plan. In London, the trafigura nickel fraud case resumes. And in industry, India’s steel build‑out faces EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) pressure, while per‑ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) phase‑out milestones approach 2025.