BAF NEWS

Overview: November 2025 gold hits one-week high

November 2025 gold hits one-week high after a Nov. 26 rally, driven by rising odds of a near‑term U.S. rate cut, according to Reuters. Prices remained resilient into Nov. 28 as December Fed rate cut odds held in a tight, elevated band.

By the numbers:

• Spot gold rose about 0.8% to ~$4,163/oz on Nov. 26 (highest since Nov. 14), per Reuters. CME FedWatch probability 85% underpinned the move.
• By Nov. 28, spot touched ~$4,186/oz, up ~0.7% on the day and about 4.6% for the month.
• Swap markets earlier showed nearly 80% odds of a December cut, while futures stayed near the mid‑80% range.

Zoom in:

J.P. Morgan shifts to December cut, aligning with market pricing that increasingly concentrates around a quarter‑point move.

Timeline: Nov. 26–28 price moves and policy signals

• Nov. 26: Gold advanced toward two‑week highs as traders ramped bets on a December pivot. Reuters pegged the day’s gain near 0.8% with futures close behind.
• Nov. 27: However, bullion eased about 0.2% as investors reassessed the setup. Still, CME FedWatch probability 85% for December kept the uptrend intact.
• Nov. 28: Moreover, spot extended gains to roughly $4,186/oz. Futures implied ~85% odds of a December move as the month’s tone improved across assets.

Rate expectations: December Fed cut odds at 80–85%

The center of gravity remains clear, December Fed rate cut odds clustered around 80–85% in both futures and swaps. CME FedWatch probability 85% has become the reference point for traders into the meeting window.

Critically, J.P. Morgan shifts to December cut, adding weight to pricing already leaning that way. In parallel, Goldman Sachs suggested limited new data likely keeps a December cut on track. Together, these calls reinforced the market’s baseline.

Drivers: Dovish Fed commentary supports bullion

Comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Christopher Waller bolstered expectations of imminent easing, Reuters reported. As a result, investors looked past near‑term volatility and favored defensive exposure, with bullion benefitting from the policy setup.

The upshot: As November 2025 gold hits one-week high, policy rhetoric, paired with softer recent data, kept rate‑sensitive assets supported.

Market impact after November 2025 gold hits one-week high

Revived hopes of a near‑term U.S. cut supported Treasuries and risk assets late in the month, according to Reuters. AP noted U.S. stocks jumped, with the Dow up roughly 660 points as hopes of lower rates spread.

Accordingly, gold monthly gain November 2025 landed near 4.6%, reflecting broad cross‑asset relief. Furthermore, the gold monthly gain November 2025 offered a constructive backdrop for year‑end positioning.

Counterpoints: Pullbacks as traders reassess

Even so, the brief Nov. 27 dip showed how quickly positioning can adjust when probabilities wobble. Therefore, incoming data and Fed remarks still matter to day‑to‑day tape action.

What’s Next: December Fed meeting and watchpoints

What’s next: The December policy decision is now the key catalyst. Traders will watch whether CME FedWatch probability 85% holds into the announcement and whether guidance implies a faster path of easing.

Additionally, J.P. Morgan shifts to December cut serves as a reference for consensus expectations. However, any hawkish surprise, or firmer data, could test December Fed rate cut odds near term.