Tokyo November 2025 core CPI rises 2.8%

Tokyo November 2025 core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, signaling persistent inflation as the policy meeting nears on December 18–19. The tokyo cpi 2.8% reading remained above the 2% target and tracked firm goods prices alongside steadier services, according to available reports.

By the numbers:

• Core CPI: 2.8% year-on-year in Tokyo’s November print. Another key gauge also registered 2.8%.
• Services inflation: 1.5% in November, while goods prices stayed stronger.
• Food categories led gains, with outsized increases noted across staples.

Zoom in:

japan inflation november 2025 is drawing extra attention because Tokyo often leads the national trend. Consequently, traders are watching whether the capital’s signal translates to the nationwide data.

Timeline: October–December releases and decisions

October indicators arrived ahead of the Tokyo print, setting the stage for policy. The japan sppi october 2025 rose 2.7% year-on-year and slowed from 3.1% in September, confirming some easing in service input costs. Then, November’s Tokyo inflation hit 2.8% on the core measure and kept debate live into the December 18–19 meeting.

Therefore, the sequence for investors is straightforward: japan sppi october 2025, followed by the tokyo cpi 2.8% reading, and finally the policy decision. As a result, odds tied to a boj december rate hike have stayed in focus.

Tokyo November 2025 core CPI: drivers and services trends

Tokyo November 2025 core CPI reflects two tracks. First, goods inflation stayed firm, supported by food and imported cost pass-through. Second, services cooled somewhat but remained positive, with services inflation at 1.5%.

Moreover, producer-side signals echo that mix. The japan sppi october 2025 increased 2.7% year-on-year, down from 3.1% in September, with gains concentrated in labor‑intensive sectors such as hotels and construction. This pattern points to labor and wage dynamics still feeding service prices, albeit at a slower pace than late summer.

The upshot: price momentum persists into year-end, even as some upstream pressures are easing.

Activity snapshot: retail, output and jobs

October data showed resilience. Japan retail sales October 2025 rose, while factory output increased 1.4% month-on-month. The unemployment rate held at 2.6%.

In parallel, the government maintained that the economy is recovering “moderately,” citing improving consumer sentiment and private consumption picking up. That backdrop supports demand-side stability. Additionally, japan retail sales october 2025 strength balances concerns that manufacturers expect output declines in November and December.

Policy signals: Noguchi backs gradual hikes

BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said rate hikes can resume but should proceed at a “measured, step-by-step” pace. He also warned that “keeping real interest rates too low for too long could be detrimental to the economy.”

However, Noguchi also noted that underlying inflation is approaching, yet still shy of, 2% on a sustained basis. Even so, a poll cited by Reuters showed a slim majority of economists expecting a December move, while all surveyed projected policy at 0.75% by March next year.

Market reaction: pricing a December BOJ move

Markets kept bets for a boj december rate hike alive after the tokyo cpi 2.8% result. According to market commentary, pricing implied roughly a measurable probability for a move at the December meeting.

Therefore, investors focused on how long real rates remain negative and whether wage gains broaden. If real rates lift gradually, the curve could reprice without severe dislocation. Still, near-term volatility may persist as liquidity thins into year-end.

What’s Next: BOJ December meeting and data to watch

What’s next: The BOJ will scrutinize Tokyo November 2025 core CPI, the services pipeline via SPPI, and activity data to set its stance on December 18–19. If wage momentum and inflation expectations hold, officials have cover to adjust rates at a measured pace.

For investors, watch three threads. First, any revision to the services outlook from the latest SPPI update. Second, follow-through from japan inflation november 2025 into national CPI. Third, communications around a potential boj december rate hike and how guidance frames 2026 normalization.

The upshot: Tokyo November 2025 core CPI keeps the door open. Markets will likely fade or firm those bets in step with incoming data.