The November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate fell to 7.26%, a 20 bps decline, according to Trepp. Office still looks bruised with an 11.68% rate. Here’s the twist: stress eased, yet the bargains that drew fresh capital remain.
U.S. CRE values sit 17% below 2022 peaks
U.S. commercial real estate values are still down materially from their highs. As WSJ reports, “U.S. commercial-real-estate values are still down 17% from their 2022 peaks on average,” with offices and apartments off 36% and 19% respectively (Green Street). That aligns with how buyers are underwriting today’s risk.
What no one is mentioning: when u.s. commercial real estate values reset this far, price discovery can get faster. Moreover, u.s. commercial real estate values at double‑digit discounts create selective entry points for patient capital.
November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate: easing, not solved
Trepp says, “The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate decreased 20 basis points in November to 7.26%.” Office pulled back only slightly to 11.68% from a record level. Consequently, lenders will still triage office loans while other sectors diverge.
You might be surprised that small improvements can unlock deal flow. As the November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate stabilizes, financing conversations get easier, though not easy. Therefore, price momentum will likely remain asset‑by‑asset.
Timeline: 2020 cost surge to November 2025 shifts
Here’s the twist: the market’s turn is a story of both pain and restraint.
- 2020–Q3 2025: Construction costs have increased more than 40% (Mortenson via WSJ). That surge set today’s supply dynamics.
- 2022: Valuations peaked, then rolled over, leaving average prices well below highs.
- 2025 YTD: Large investors were net buyers for the first time in years. WSJ notes, “Data from MSCI show large investors have bought $4.6 billion more U.S. property than they sold so far in 2025.”
- Late November 2025: The blackstone four seasons san francisco deal closed around $130 million, signaling opportunistic buying.
- November 2025: The November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate eased to 7.26%, hinting at tentative stabilization.
Investor interest returns as prices reset
Follow the money: institutional appetite is creeping back. WSJ reports big investors turned net purchasers in 2025 as discounts widened. That said, underwriting is still conservative and selective.
Look at the blackstone four seasons san francisco marker. The San Francisco Chronicle reports Blackstone closed the 277‑room hotel deal “at the end of November” and it’s “expected to land around $130 million.” The blackstone four seasons san francisco price underscores how discounts are being captured in markets with challenged fundamentals.
Local strain: Seattle office vacancies weigh on pricing
Seattle exemplifies the pressure. Axios notes the region’s office vacancy is about 17.3% with roughly 43 million square feet listed. “Seattle leads the nation in office rent declines as vacancies climb to record highs.”
As a result, concessions are heavy, and valuations reflect it. For watchlists, seattle office vacancy 2025 sits near the top because it signals leasing risk and slower absorption. Moreover, seattle office vacancy 2025 tells lenders and buyers to pad downtime assumptions.
Supply-side cushion: High construction costs limit new builds
The supply picture is the quiet stabilizer. Construction costs have surged since 2020, and that is curbing new starts. In practice, that shields existing assets from a fresh wave of competition.
Here’s the twist: elevated construction costs real estate 2025 can be a friend to current owners. Additionally, construction costs real estate 2025 force developers to sharpen pencils, which may cap speculative pipelines.
What’s next after the November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate
What to watch: further prints on the November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate trendline, pricing updates from brokers, and more balance‑sheet trades. Also track opportunistic acquisitions like hotels and well‑located multifamily. And keep an eye on local stress points, Seattle today, perhaps other tech hubs tomorrow.
Bottom line: as the November 2025 CMBS delinquency rate cools, buyers will keep testing the bid. Yet the durability of this turn depends on leasing traction, lender flexibility, and whether values keep converging with cash‑flow reality.
