Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised to 35.6 million tonnes

Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised anchors ABARES’ December update. Wheat is now set at 35.6 million tonnes, up 4% year on year. Reuters notes the lift is nearly 2 million tonnes above prior projections.

ABARES stated, “Wheat production is forecast to increase by 4% to 35.6 million tonnes in 2025–26.” According to the abares december 2025 crop report, the increase reflects harvest results that exceeded earlier expectations.

Winter crop totals: 66.3mt, second-largest on record

ABARES now sees national winter crop output at 66.3 million tonnes, the second-largest on record. As the agency put it, “National winter crop production expected to increase by 10% to 66.3 million tonnes in 2025–26, the second largest winter crop on record.” Moreover, the abares december 2025 crop report provides state-level context and year-on-year shifts.

Consequently, australia winter crop 66.3 million tonnes sets a high baseline for supply into 2026. In turn, the Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised supports that broader outlook. For emphasis, australia winter crop 66.3 million tonnes marks a notable recovery versus prior expectations.

Record barley and higher canola underpin the outlook

The update projects record barley production 15.7 million tonnes in 2025–26. Additionally, canola production 7.2 million tonnes is forecast, up 13% from last season. Together, these increases help explain why the Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised is part of a stronger grains picture.

ABARES highlights, “Barley production is forecast to increase by 18% to a record 15.7 million tonnes in 2025–26.” As a result, record barley production 15.7 million tonnes would set a new high. Likewise, canola production 7.2 million tonnes underpins exportable oilseed supply, and canola production 7.2 million tonnes complements gains in cereals.

Timeline: how the Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast rose

National estimates were revised upward between spring and early summer. The abares december 2025 crop report notes winter crop projections were raised from the September 2025 edition. Reuters also flagged pending upgrades ahead of the release.

Accordingly, the Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised from earlier guidance to 35.6 million tonnes. This aligns with stronger yields observed late in harvest.

What’s Next: further ABARES updates for 2025–26

Further ABARES releases will refine 2025–26 production estimates as new data arrives. Therefore, market participants will watch the next round of official updates for any adjustments.

Importantly, the Australia 2025–26 wheat forecast raised will be assessed alongside realised exports and domestic demand. This should help calibrate supply-and-demand balances into mid-2026.