TL;DR
Japan October 2025 inflation remains above the 2% target. Core rose 3.0% and core-core CPI Japan reached 3.1%. Evidence shows firms are passing costs on, and Japan PMI November 2025 reports faster input‑cost growth.
Japan October 2025 inflation by the numbers
Japan October 2025 inflation is still above target. Reuters reports, “Japan’s core consumer prices rose 3.0% in October from a year earlier,” and an index excluding fresh food and energy “rose 3.1% in October from a year earlier.” Both measures accelerated and remain above 2%.
These prints will be assessed at the BOJ December 2025 meeting on Dec. 18, 19. Moreover, inflation has exceeded target for well over three years, according to Reuters. Core-core CPI Japan, which strips volatile items, signals persistent underlying pressure.
Visuals suggested: core vs. core-core since 2019, 2% target line.
Japan October 2025 inflation: corporate price pass-through
Governor Kazuo Ueda said a weak yen can lift underlying inflation. He noted that “yen declines would push up import costs that will then be passed on to domestic prices.” That is classic yen pass-through inflation.
He also said “companies have become more active in raising prices and wages.” This suggests yen pass-through inflation is embedding into pricing norms. His remarks came as the yen hovered near a 10‑month low, underscoring currency‑cost linkages.
PMI: input costs and selling prices in November
Japan PMI November 2025 signaled mixed momentum. Manufacturing contracted at 48.8, while services held at 53.1. The composite index rose to 52.0, marking an eighth month of expansion.
Inflationary pressures intensified, with “input costs rising at the fastest pace in six months.” Firms also “raised their selling prices to secure profit margins,” though output‑price inflation eased from October. Input pressures were driven by labor and raw materials, according to the survey.
Timeline: October CPI to the BOJ December 2025 meeting
October: Japan October 2025 inflation showed core at 3.0% and core-core CPI Japan at 3.1%.
November: Japan PMI November 2025 flagged faster input costs and continued price hikes. December 18, 19: the BOJ December 2025 meeting reviews underlying inflation, price pass‑through, and growth signals.
Implications for BOJ policy
Evidence shows persistent, above‑target inflation and active cost pass‑through. The contradiction: manufacturing contracts, yet pricing power persists.
Therefore, the board will test whether inflation can stabilize near 2% without yen shocks. Ueda said rate hikes will continue if underlying inflation stabilizes around 2%. Follow the money: higher import costs, stronger wages, and firm pricing all lift the underlying trend.
Notably, the BOJ ended its decade‑long stimulus earlier and lifted short‑term rates to 0.5% in January. Two board members even proposed 0.75% at recent meetings, Reuters reported. Those precedents will frame the December assessment.
What’s Next
Watch the BOJ December 2025 meeting for rate and guidance signals. Then track fresh CPI, especially core-core CPI Japan, for confirmation of persistence.
Also monitor the yen and the next PMI after Japan PMI November 2025. If yen pass-through inflation endures, firms may keep nudging prices higher. That outcome would keep Japan October 2025 inflation central to the policy debate into early 2026.
