BAF NEWS

November 2025 TTF gas below €30: 18‑month low

November 2025 TTF gas below €30 moved markets on Nov. 24 as the benchmark briefly hit about €29.20/MWh, according to market reports. That undercut prior 2025 lows and set the weakest level since May 2024. European natural gas prices had already been drifting lower before the break.

Evidence shows… S&P Global recorded the sub‑€30/MWh move and flagged an intraday low near €29.20/MWh. Argus reported the Dutch TTF December 2025 contract down to €29.2/MWh the same day, reinforcing the scale of the slide. European natural gas prices therefore entered the week with a bearish tone.

Visuals suggested: intraday price trace for front‑month TTF; scatter of “headline timestamps vs. ticks”; storage vs. 5‑year band.

Why November 2025 TTF gas fell below €30

Traders pointed to two reinforcing forces. First came geopolitics: the ukraine peace talks gas impact reduced the risk premium. Second came fundamentals: mild weather, robust LNG imports, and steady Norwegian pipeline supply.

The contradiction: storage is lower than a year ago, yet prices fell. However, sentiment leaned on the supply outlook and on diplomacy headlines. In trader shorthand, “lng imports norway flows” signaled comfort on near‑term balance.

Peace‑talk headlines ease the risk premium

Reports described recent US–Ukraine meetings as “highly productive.” Moreover, Kyiv publicly signaled readiness to advance a US‑backed framework. Market participants framed the move as a reaction to alleged progress in the talks. Consequently, the ukraine peace talks gas impact fed directly into risk‑premium compression.

Evidence shows… prices also slipped after follow‑on headlines suggested Kyiv had backed parts of a deal. While no agreement is certain, the direction of travel weighed on gas.

Fundamentals: mild weather, LNG and Norwegian flows

Forecasts pointed to mild, windy conditions into early December, lowering heating demand and boosting wind output. At the same time, LNG arrivals stayed healthy and Norwegian flows were steady. Analysts repeatedly cited “lng imports norway flows” as the core supply theme shaping expectations.

Follow the money: cheaper feedgas has begun to improve margins in gas‑intensive sectors, according to trade press. That supports a narrative of easing stress across the value chain as spot supply expands.

Storage, cold spell, and price resilience

EU gas storage 79% as of Nov. 22 undershot last year’s ~88% level. Even so, prices barely budged during a recent cold snap. Therefore, the low‑temperature test failed to spark a rally.

Evidence shows… benchmark prices remained below €30/MWh through the volatility. EU gas storage 79% now functions as a psychological anchor rather than a hard floor, as long as weather and inflows cooperate.

Timeline: Nov. 22–26 price moves and headlines

Nov. 22: EU storage was reported just above 79%. That framed a cushion, albeit thinner than 2024. Still, the market leaned on the outlook for LNG and Norway.

Nov. 24: The benchmark broke the line, with an intraday low around €29.20/MWh. The break to November 2025 TTF gas below €30 coincided with weekend and Monday headlines about diplomacy momentum.

Nov. 25–26: Additional reports said Kyiv was ready to advance a framework and that talks were “highly productive.” Consequently, curves held subdued. Meanwhile, coverage noted prices slipping again after signals that parts of a deal had been backed.

What’s next: weather updates, peace‑talk signals, and supply flows

Three variables will likely steer the next leg:

• Weather: If model runs flip colder, a rebound could follow. If they stay mild and windy, pressure persists.
• Supply: LNG schedules and Norwegian maintenance remain crucial. Watch “lng imports norway flows” for confirmation.
• Geopolitics: The ukraine peace talks gas impact will continue to set the risk tone. Any setback or breakthrough could move spreads quickly.

Additionally, keep an eye on the Dutch TTF December 2025 contract behavior versus the front‑month. Basis relationships often reveal shifting fundamentals first. If Dutch TTF December 2025 tightens versus prompt, traders may be baking in a colder turn or fewer cargos.

Therefore, the near‑term playbook is straightforward. Track model updates, follow LNG and pipeline telemetry, and parse diplomacy for signal over noise. November 2025 TTF gas below €30 is a milestone, but its durability will be tested by the next forecast cycle.