BAF NEWS

November 2025 US PMI accelerates to 54.8

November 2025 US PMI climbed to 54.8, up from 54.6, marking the fastest pace since July, according to flash readings. The s&p global flash pmi shows private‑sector output still expanding, driven mainly by services, Reuters reported.

Here’s the twist: the headline strength masks mixed undercurrents. Reported increases were modest overall, but momentum improved for a second month, Dow Jones noted via MarketScreener.

Services strengthen as manufacturing cools but stays expansionary

The us services pmi november 2025 improved to 55.0, showing firmer demand in consumer‑facing sectors. In contrast, manufacturing pmi 51.9 signaled slower factory growth, yet it remained in expansion territory.

Moreover, the us services pmi november 2025 outpaced goods‑producing activity for a second month. Meanwhile, manufacturing pmi 51.9 trailed October’s 52.5 but kept the recovery intact, per Reuters and FXStreet.

Demand, inventories, prices, and hiring signals from the PMI

New orders slowed, hinting at softer forward momentum. However, finished‑goods inventories hit a survey high, pointing to caution and potential discounting ahead.

At the same time, both input costs and selling prices re‑accelerated. Hiring continued, but cost concerns kept gains modest, according to the s&p global flash pmi and related coverage.

What no one is mentioning:

A sharper pullback in orders could flip pricing power quickly. Yet, as long as services hold, the overall Composite likely stays in the mid‑50s, according to available reports.

Timeline: November 2025 US PMI context and data delays

The flash survey ran November 12–20, capturing post‑shutdown conditions. That timing matters because the government shutdown impact on data was significant, delaying key releases.

BLS cancels October CPI due to missing collection during the shutdown, Reuters reported. BLS also canceled the October jobs report and said it may fold October values into November releases where possible. As a result, the historical baselines will be less precise.

Optimism improves as shutdown ends and rate‑cut hopes build

Business confidence strengthened on expectations for further rate cuts and relief after the shutdown’s end. Markets saw political risks ease, and firms sounded more upbeat about the pipeline.

Nevertheless, optimism is tempered by cost pressures and patchy demand in goods. The s&p global flash pmi narrative points to a better tone but not a breakout.

PMI strength vs lingering uncertainty

The longest shutdown is over, but uncertainty persists. S&P Global’s outlook flagged a U.S. “data drought,” which still clouds near‑term reads on growth and inflation.

Therefore, the government shutdown impact on data keeps volatility risks elevated into year‑end. Until the full set of official prints return, PMIs carry extra weight.

What’s next: policy signals to watch

Watch for November CPI and employment reports, which may incorporate October values. BLS cancels October CPI has already forced that shift, and similar adjustments could appear in labor data.

Keep tracking the s&p global flash pmi, services pricing, and inventories for clues to Q4 momentum. You might be surprised that S&P Global’s Chris Williamson suggested the flash reads map to roughly 2.5% annualized GDP growth in Q4, according to FXStreet. Finally, the Fed’s tone will hinge on prices and demand breadth more than a single survey.