BAF NEWS

TL;DR

September 2025 Case-Shiller home prices rose 1.3% year over year as the pace cooled again. All 20 metros slipped month over month before seasonal adjustment, while the national seasonally adjusted index rose 0.2%. The fhfa house price index q3 2025 shows prices up 2.2% year over year and 0.2% quarter over quarter, with September unchanged from August.

September 2025 Case-Shiller home prices: annual pace eases

September 2025 Case-Shiller home prices increased 1.3% from a year earlier, down from 1.4% in August, according to S&P. The case-shiller national index september 2025 shows a further deceleration in u.s. home price growth september 2025. Notably, the 10-city composite rose 2.0% year over year, while the 20-city composite edged up 1.4%.

Moreover, breadth within the composites softened. The 20-city composite september 2025 lagged the 10-city gauge, pointing to weaker gains in a wider set of large metros. Still, the overall trend remains positive on an annual basis, though momentum is fading.

Where September 2025 Case-Shiller home prices weakened month to month

Before seasonal adjustment, all 20 tracked metros declined in September. However, after seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.2%, and the 20-city composite september 2025 posted a modest 0.1% gain. As a result, the case-shiller national index september 2025 signaled that underlying demand has not fully stalled, even as headline non-seasonally adjusted readings softened.

Additionally, the universal non-seasonally adjusted declines underscore sensitivity to rates and seasonality. Yet the mild seasonally adjusted uptick suggests price dynamics are stabilizing near flat in the short run.

FHFA check: modest gains, flat September

The fhfa house price index q3 2025 showed U.S. prices rose 2.2% year over year and 0.2% quarter over quarter. Furthermore, FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was unchanged from August. Consequently, the fhfa house price index q3 2025 supports the cooling narrative while still indicating modest quarterly appreciation.

Even so, the FHFA series can diverge from Case-Shiller due to coverage and methodology. Nevertheless, both point to slower momentum into the fall.

Timeline: late-September readings and how they align

Together, September 2025 Case-Shiller home prices and FHFA’s September reading illustrate cooling but not contraction. Case-Shiller’s annual pace eased to 1.3%, with broad non-seasonally adjusted monthly declines across all metros. Meanwhile, FHFA’s monthly index was flat, and its Q3 snapshot posted a 2.2% year-over-year gain.

Therefore, the two measures align on a slower glide path. Importantly, u.s. home price growth september 2025 is still positive, but it is drifting lower as higher borrowing costs pinch demand.

Affordability squeeze from higher rates

S&P highlighted financing costs as a key drag: “Elevated mortgage rates weigh on affordability and demand.” Because borrowing power remains constrained, sellers face thinner pools of qualified buyers. Accordingly, mortgage rates affordability 2025 remains a central headwind to price appreciation.

Moreover, any rate volatility can quickly affect buyer sentiment and monthly prints. Until mortgage rates affordability 2025 improves meaningfully, broad-based acceleration looks unlikely.

Breadth check: gains in most states

Despite the slowdown, FHFA reported price gains across most of the country over the past year. Prices rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia, according to available reports. In addition, regional splits remain uneven, with some divisions lagging as higher-priced areas show more sensitivity to rates.

Still, the national story is one of decelerating growth rather than outright decline. As a result, local supply conditions and job markets will continue to drive dispersion.

What’s next: tracking the trend into year-end

The next Case-Shiller and FHFA releases for October and November will show whether the cooling persists. If mortgage rates retreat, seasonal patterns could firm late-year prices; if not, stabilization near flat is more likely. Therefore, watch how the case-shiller national index september 2025 trajectory evolves versus the Q4 macro backdrop.

Additionally, monitor whether the 10-city and 20-city composites diverge further as affordability reshapes demand across high-cost metros. Finally, any sustained shift in u.s. home price growth september 2025 into year-end will likely hinge on rates, inventory, and wage growth.