BAF NEWS

Here’s the twist: September 2025 jobs report delayed isn’t just a headline, it reset the cadence of U.S. labor data and market expectations. The BLS pushed September to Nov. 20, canceled October outright, and circled Dec. 16 for the next update.

Why the September 2025 jobs report was delayed

A 43‑day government shutdown froze data collection and publication. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reworked its calendar and noted bls release schedule changes. The agency confirmed the October 2025 jobs report canceled and said some October establishment data will be appended next month. However, October household survey data were not collected and won’t be recreated.

What no one is mentioning: the sequencing matters for policy. With the September 2025 jobs report delayed, the time lag between data and decisions widened at a sensitive moment.

Timeline: shutdown, delay, cancellations, next release

The shutdown spanned six weeks, creating gaps. Then came the bls release schedule changes, which locked in a revised timetable:

• Nov. 20: delayed September release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• October 2025 jobs report canceled, full stop.
• Dec. 16: november 2025 employment situation date, with October establishment data appended.

You might be surprised that the november 2025 employment situation date falls after the Fed’s December 10 meeting. That sequencing reduces fresh labor input before decisions.

September 2025 jobs report delayed: the headline numbers

The core read was steady, not spectacular. September 2025 nonfarm payrolls 119,000 showed modest hiring momentum. The unemployment rate 4.4 percent edged higher, reflecting a softer household gauge.

Wages cooled. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month and 3.8% year over year. That mix implies easing pay pressures, but not a freeze.

For emphasis, September 2025 nonfarm payrolls 119,000 arrived after weeks of uncertainty. And the unemployment rate 4.4 percent matched a multi‑year high, reinforcing a slower trend.

Revisions trimmed summer job gains

Here’s the twist: prior‑month revisions shaved the summer. August was cut to a 4,000 job loss from a small gain. July landed at +72,000. Net, those two months were 33,000 lower than first reported. That downward reset makes September look less like a blip and more like a glide.

Where jobs grew, and fell in September

Hiring clustered in services. Health care, restaurants, and social assistance posted gains. But transportation and warehousing lost jobs, and federal government payrolls slipped. The composition hints at resilient consumer services and weaker logistics.

Market reaction to the delayed release

Stocks liked the clarity, at least at first. S&P futures rose about 1.6% after the drop, while Treasury yields jumped, then reversed. The dollar barely budged. Markets treated the September 2025 jobs report delayed as relief, not a regime shift.

Policy implications: Fed flying with limited data

With the October 2025 jobs report canceled, policymakers face a thinner dashboard. Analysts warned the shutdown made the Fed’s job harder. Consequently, traders trimmed odds of a December rate cut. One high‑profile shift: Morgan Stanley dropped its call for a December cut after the print.

Moreover, the absence of October household data raises uncertainty. The unemployment rate 4.4 percent will stand unchallenged until mid‑December. That gap complicates risk‑management for the central bank.

What’s Next: November report on Dec. 16

Circle the date: the november 2025 employment situation date is Dec. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to BLS, it will include October establishment figures but no October household survey. That means a split picture. We will finally see how hiring progressed into Q4, yet labor force and unemployment details will still show a one‑month hole.

Bottom line: with the September 2025 jobs report delayed and the October 2025 jobs report canceled, the December release becomes the market’s compass. Expect elevated sensitivity to any revisions and to wage prints. Until then, the Fed is flying with fewer instruments.